Great comment from Robby on my post statistically comparing AJ Allmendinger and David Ragan:

One thing you didn’t really factor which is a big deal to car owners is busted equipment. David Ragan destroys alot of race cars…AJ is one of the least wreck prone drivers in NASCAR. Ragan’s low finished were often a result of a wreck. AJ’s bad finishes were generally the result of bad handling cars or bad luck (Dover, Indy, Texas).

He’s right about owners being concerned about drivers who are constantly tearing up the equipment, so I pulled up the “running at finish” numbers for the two drivers, as shown to the right.  Ragan is again shown in red and Allmendinger in blue.  A high number means that you finished more races.

These numbers don’t discriminate between a blown engine or you taking out your own car running into someone else.   So I went through and took out  DNFs that were attributed to mechanical problems and re-plotted the data.  Ragan had two engines let go on him this year, so the number doesn’t look quite as bad as looking at the absolute number of DNFs.

For comparison:

  • The only drivers who competed in all 36 races and had more DNFs than Ragan were David Gilliland (4 crashes/2 mechanical) and Clint Bowyer (4 crashes, one engine and one running out of fuel).
  • Only three Sprint Cup drivers finished all 36 races in 2011 running:  Montoya, Edwards and Newman.  Stewart finished 35/36.
  • Steven Wallace – whose name came up first when I Googled “NASCAR” “crash” and “statistics” – has RAF (running at finish) percentages in Nationwide of 76.4%, 85.7%, 85.7%, 80%, and 82.9%.  Even someone who crashes “a lot” still finishes 3/4 of the races.
  • Aric Almirola ran a full year in Nationwide last year and finished 94.1% of the races (32/34).  He never ran a full year in the Sprint Cup, but the numbers for 2007-2010 are:  50%, 91.7%, 75% and 55.6%.  These numbers can be a little misleading because the largest number of races he ran was 12 in 2008.  For example, in 2007, he only ran six races and finished 3.  If he had finished 4 races out of 7, that would have raised his RAF percentage to 57.1% from 50%.  When you’re dealing with small numbers, a single race makes a much bigger difference – that’s why the standings bounce so wildly during the first couple weeks of the season and why we really can’t compare Almirola with Ragan using race stats.
  • Again, much thanks to racing-reference.info for access to the great stats.

I saw a couple more interesting things in the overall 2011 stats, but I’ve got my own personal countdown clock – unfortunately, it’s not to Daytona – it’s to the first day of classes in the Spring semester and I have a syllabus to get finished.  Thanks for the suggestion Robby!

 

The NASCAR pundits have again simplified a complex situation.  Incorrectly.

(Of course, at least they got the network right!  I got FOX and ESPN confused.  This is the problem with a 60-hour a week job and trying to blog about something utterly unrelated in the meantime.  My excuse is that I have a $3.5 million proposal due this week.  The same math holds, regardless of whether it is FOX or ESPN. Thank you Michael!)

The NASCAR Net is a-twitter since FOX floated a trial balloon about moving races from ESPN FOX to SPEED.  I’ve heard the argument over and over, in print and on radio that this is a bad idea because EPSN FOX is in 100 million homes and SPEED is in “only” 78 million homes.  They argue this would be a decline of 22 million potential viewers.  The question not being asked how many of those 22 million ESPN FOX watchers are actually potential viewers?

Point number 1:  Diehard NASCAR fans are going to find the race on television wherever it is.  Rabid fans are going to get whatever cable package they need in order to watch races, or they’re going to find a local sportsbar that carries the race.  Casual and incidental viewers are the ones that will make a difference in numbers.

Point number 2:  A very small fraction of households receiving a network watch it.  The highest rated race of 2010 on ESPN was August Pocono, with 6.3 million viewers.  Let’s assume an average of 2 people per household, so if ESPN is in 100 million households, that corresponds to roughly 200 million viewers.  ESPN pulled in 3.2% of the viewers who had the option of watching the August race at Pocono.

SPEED is in 78 million households, so assuming the same two people on average per household, there are 156 million potential viewers.  If SPEED captured the same 3.2% of their possible viewers, that would be 5.0 million viewers.  The difference is 1.3 million viewers — if you are willing to ignore point 3.

The numbers for FOX – let’s leave out the Daytona 500, which was 13.3 million and I bet FOX isn’t going to move that – are similar.  The highest rated race was April Talladega, with 8.45 million viewers.  Out of the 200 million possible eyeballs, that’s 4.2%.  4.2% of SPEED’s viewing audience is 6.55 million viewers, so again, we need an increase of about 1% to match FOX’s numbers.

Point 3:  Consider the demographics of FOX viewers vs. SPEED viewers.  SPEED is a motorsports channel.  I would think you’d be more likely to get a motocross fan to watch NASCAR than an average television viewer.  Which network is more likely to promote the race during other shows?  Which network is more likely to have the schedule freedom to do extended pre- and post-race shows?  All SPEED would have to do to equal the viewership from ESPN would be to attract 0.86% of the remaining viewers and about 1% to equal the viewership from FOX.  We’re really talking more like a difference of 2 million than 22 million.

There are many factors besides numbers, but numbers aren’t as big a factor as some are trying to make them out to be.

Just for fun, here are some stats for ESPN and SPEED viewership. They are from 2006-2007, but that’s the latest I have easy access to.

Category ESPN SPEED
Men 69% 80%
Women 31% 20%
18-34 28% -
35-54 39% -
55+ 33 -
18-49 - 69%
25-54 - 63%
$75,000/year + 43% 38%
$50,000/year + 62% 61%
 

ExxonMobil announced their sponsorship of Tony Stewart’s car for a partial 2011 season today.  Glad to see Mobil1 staying in the sport – especially since ExxonMobil are huge, huge supporters of math and science education.

Got a number of questions today about how a team that uses Hendrick engines – Hendrick having Quaker State as a sponsor – can have sponsorship from another oil company.  The questions were along the lines of “Will Stewart-Haas have to drain the oil pans when they get them from Hendrick?”

Here’s a quick answer, since I’m in the middle of a cross-country move and just about everything I own is in boxes:

NASCAR engines use a dry sump system.  That means that (unlike a passenger car engine) there is no oilpan on a NASCAR engine.  There are a couple of practical reasons for this.  One is that an oilpan is an invitation for disaster.  One bump on the bottom of a rough track and you’ve got a rupture.  Given that the NASCAR engine uses 22 qts of oil, that would be a lot of oil spilled on the track and a huge fire hazard.  You want to use as little energy as possible on friction, which means that the last thing you want is for your crankshaft to be spinning at 9,000 rpm through a pool of oil.  NASCAR engines use squirters to get the oil where it needs to go.  Removing the oil from an oil pan to a tank (located behind the driver) keeps the majority of the oil in a much safer location.  The oil tank is surrounded by a metal shield because the oil becomes extremely hot and the vaporization of the oil molecules creates quite a smell.  (The oil tank lid is what went missing a couple of years ago on the 99 car.)  The oil tank cover is on the leftmost of the photo.  The metal shield surrounding it is not shown on this picture that I took at the Hendrick Motorsports museum.

When a team gets an engine from another company, the engine is delivered dry.  Although oil is composed of mostly oil molecules (duh!),  a small fraction of the oil is non-oil additives.  These molecules have different tasks – helping to carry away heat faster and more efficiently, sweeping away small bits of debris, reducing friction, etc.   Each team chooses what kind (manufacturer, viscosity, etc.) of oil they want to use for qualifying and for the race.  Teams with ‘technical partnerships’ with oil manufacturers work with the engineers from that company and have access to the information that company has about friction-reducing additives, anti-fouling chemicals, etc.   The larger teams spend a significant amount of effort researching how different oil additives change the longevity, efficiency and temperature of the engine under different conditions (i.e. wide range of rpms, continuous high rpm).

There are non-technical issues as well.  Perhaps a team is willing to lease engines to a second team that isn’t performing very well.  Requiring them to use a particular brand of oil makes an implicit suggestion of endorsement by the oil company.  When my book (The Physics of NASCAR) was coming out, we joked about taking a picture of a driver or two behind the wheel with the book.   Then we realized that a couple of the drivers we were considering were running badly enough at the time that maybe it wouldn’t be the best publicity for the book.

Similarly, the oil company may not want to be seen to be endorsing that team.  So decoupling the oil and the engines makes a lot of sense for technical, as well as sponsorship, reasons.

If you want to learn more about oil, come out and see the science of motorsports exhibit at the very first USA Science and Engineering Festival, October 23-24 in downtown Washington DC.  Our booth will be about 13th and Pennsylvania.  We’ve got a new hands-on demo exploring the properties of oil, including viscosity and clearance.  Lots of cool things to play with, plus a couple hundred other exhibits, ranging from the nanoscopic to the entire universe.  It’s going to be great fun and I hope to see some of the blog readers there.

 

The important stuff first:  Best wishes to Jack Roush (one of my personal heroes) for a speedy recovery from his accident, to Marcus Ambrose for finding a ride for next year, and condolences to the fans in St. Louis who won’t have the opportunity to see Nationwide or Truck racing in 2011.

Jenna Freyer of the AP reported that some NASCAR drivers have been fined recently for negative comments about the sport.  She wrote:

“The Associated Press has learned that NASCAR warned teams during the offseason that public criticism of the sport would no longer be tolerated, and at least two star drivers have been fined — one as much as $50,000 — for comments that were deemed destructive to the industry.”

When I first started in academia, I firmly denied the idea that we live in an ivory tower. Getting out of academia and working with companies and sanctioning bodies has been a real eye-opener for me. As a scientist, I have the right to make any assertion I want — as long as I can back it up with data. The whole point of scholarship is pursuit of the Truth (which we share with the field of capital-J Journalism). One of the most disappointing things I’ve learned as a result of my time with the ‘real world’ is that there are entirely to many people who believe they can dictate what people think by telling them what to say and do. In science, the determining factor is not who you are, but the veracity of what you say. I have the right – in fact, the responsibility – to correct something that is incorrect. It doesn’t matter if the speaker is a graduate student or a Nobel Prize winner.

Of course, when you start getting into the world of opinion (and yes, there is plenty of opinion in science because there are many things we still don’t know), the rules become fuzzier. We all know scientists who are so in love with their own theories that they are not as objective about their work as they should be. We have, unfortunately, had a number of recent cases of scientific misconduct, in which data were fabricated or even cherry-picked to make them look more convincing than they really were. When those cases are uncovered, the punishment is very clear – you lose the right to be a scientist at a reputable institution.  The funding agencies can go through due process and deny you the ability to compete for grants to support your research.  Papers in which incorrect data are  published must be retracted.  But unless I have evidence that someone has knowingly done something malicious, my accusing them of misconduct is libel, not opinion.

Imagine you are one of the people in the NASCAR hierarchy who makes decisions about debris cautions or determines whether a car meets NASCAR’s somewhat fuzzy technical specifications.  How would you feel if one of the drivers got up and told the world that he lost the race because the officials called a fake debris caution to make the race more exciting?  That’s not “destructive to the industry”, that’s making a value judgment of the integrity of the official and the officiating body.  I agree with NASCAR that they should have every right to discipline people they license to participate in the sport if those people make unfounded statements that question the integrity of the sport.

Ramsey Poston refused to get into specifics, saying only:

“It is the sanctioning body’s obligation on behalf of the industry and our fans to protect the sport’s brand.  Any action taken by NASCAR has nothing to do with the drivers expressing an opinion — it’s focused on actions or comments that materially damage the sport.”

That’s come across in very different ways in different stories, which range from “NASCAR fines drivers for making disparaging comments about the sport” to tweets that “NASCAR muzzles drivers”.  Drivers (crew chiefs, owners, mechanics and anyone else) should have the right to state substantiated opinions.  Denny Hamlin ought to be mad about losing a race due to a late-race debris caution, and he ought to be able to state facts. If no one on his team saw any debris, that’s a perfectly fair thing to say.  He can do that without suggesting that there is a conspiracy.  NASCAR, for their part, ought to be able to point out the debris when they call a caution and everyone involved in racing ought to understand that sometimes you can’t tell whether the unidentified debris is metal or rubber, and that it is better to call a caution than to find out what the thing in the middle of the best driving line is made of by having someone run over it at 200 mph.  The NASCAR media got on the TV broadcasters last year about not showing caution-causing debris.  The broadcasters responded by trying to make sure they showed the debris and, in at least one case, wondering out loud where the debris was because they couldn’t find it.

Tony Stewart lit into Goodyear for a bad tire choice at the first Atlanta race in 2008.  He wasn’t the only driver upset about tire problems – Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman (among others) said similar things, although in more reasonable and measured ways.  Goodyear invited Stewart to visit their tire operation and explained the process of specifying and making tires to him and he appeared chastened.  He still felt it was a bad tire, but he was a little more constructive with his criticism.  The simple act of Goodyear taking the time to explain how they work and how they are really doing the best they can raised my opinion of them.  Stewart’s admission that he overreacted raised my opinion of him, as well.  Sometimes, you’re just wrong and the best way to deal with it is to admit that you were wrong.

@jim_utter asked whether anyone could show him one instance in which fans didn’t go to the track because of something someone said. (Bonus points to @spencerlueders, who replied “The weatherman”  Spencer is, if I remember right, a science-loving motorsports lawyer who sent me a neat email when I did Charlotte Talks.)

I think most fans have the same reaction I do when I hear a whiny driver making no sense:  “What a schmuck.”  It has absolutely no impact on my attending or watching race.  Far more important are ticket prices, where and when races are located, whether I have a job, and how my favorite drivers are doing.   NASCAR’s taken the other road and refuses to talk about it, which has only stretched out the discussion because people wonder who was fined and what exactly they said.  If NASCAR is (as I suspect) in the right (in this case) and it’s analogous to fining a pitcher for making remarks about the integrity of the umpire, they would have done themselves so much more credit by being open about it.  If they want to “protect the brand” by trying to make sure no one says anything negative about it — even when true and justified — then that’s a strong reason for me to stop watching.

Is there any reason why NASCAR can’t collect the debris that causes cautions and put it on display, like they do the shock absorbers they select for dismantling?  Yes, this could result in embarrassment because sometimes a caution is called and it turns out to be a hamburger wrapper or a piece of foam – but honestly, if you can’t appreciate the importance of being very careful when you’re talking about people’s lives, you really shouldn’t call yourself a racing fan anyway.

My friend The Rocket Scientist likes to engage me in the occasional debate of whether NASCAR is a sport.  (It’s a boring debate that doesn’t really interest me, but I sometimes play along just because it gets fun.  Like the time someone suggested that a sport was anything people paid to watch.  TRS noted that this would technically make stripping a sport.)  It’s become a running game with a group of friends:  what makes a sport a “real” sport?  During the World Cup, another friend, Owl, suggested that a true sport doesn’t allot points for style.

I’ve got a new one to run by them: A true sport doesn’t have secret rules.

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