Oct 252012
 
DLPTXTrackBanking

I love getting questions from readers because I always worry that the geeky stuff I find interesting is only interesting to me.  I love it even more when they not only give me a question, they also supply part of the answer!  This one has to do with the degrees of difference between Martinsville and Fontana.

Michael J. Clark asked a really good question about Martinsville and Fontana:

Why does Fontana (banking in the turns is 14 degrees) seem to have such higher banking than Martinsville (banking in the turns is 12 degrees)?  I would think the 2 degrees more that Fontana has wouldn’t look so dramatically different than Martinsville, but it really does.  I’m guessing it has to do with the fact that Fontana’s turns are about 10 car-widths wide (my estimate) compared to the turns at Martinsville, which seem to be about four car-widths wide.

Great question and another example (like race cars seemingly speeding up when spinning into the grass) of how our perceptions are often subjective.

We always talk about Martinsville being a “flat track”, which is sort of unfair.  It’s flat compared to Talladega and Daytona, but there are still twelve degrees of banking in the turns.  Nothing like a little trigonometry at the racetrack – what does twelve degrees look like?  Let’s start with some definitions so we’re all talking about the same things.

Track width is measured across the track surface and forms the hypotenuse of a right triangle.

Any right triangle can be described by the lengths of any two sides, or the length of one side and one angle.  Remember SOHCAHTOA? You can (finally!!) use your trig to reverse engineer the racetrack.

One degree isn’t really all that large.  A banking angle of one degree means that in order to get a rise of one foot, you need to have a run of about 57 feet.  One degree isn’t very much, as shown in my figure below.

The top picture shows what a banking angle of one degree would look like, with the rise of 1 foot and the run of 57 feet.

The bottom picture is a scale drawing of Martinsville Speedway, which has a track width of about 55 feet (although I think it is a little narrower in the corners).  The banking angle is variously given as 11 degrees or 12 degrees.  I’m using 12 degrees here because that’s what the official NASCAR site says.  Given the hypotenuse (track width) and the banking angle, I can back calculate to show that the rise is about 11.4 feet and the run is about 54 feet.

Now to Michael’s question.  The diagram below shows scale drawings of the banking at Martinsville and California and (just for comparison) Talladega.  I’m using the best numbers I can find on the web.  If someone has more accurate numbers, please let me know.  Kudos, by the way, to Talladega for having one of the best webpages of track data.

Michael has great instincts – the track at Fontana is two-to-three car lengths wider than Martinsville.  This means that the rise is seven feet (one Brad Daugherty) higher than Martinsville at the edge of the track. That increase in rise makes the banking look steeper because you’re looking up a greater distance.

(You always hear that Talladega is five stories tall.  I’m not sure what they’re counting in that calculation because I get 26 feet, which is pretty far short of five stories unless you have very short stories.)

In addition to the greater width, you also have to remember that there’s a huge difference in overall scale.  Martinsville was the second track I visited while writing The Physics of NASCAR – the first was Atlanta.  Martinsville was the track that made me love short tracks.  You get up close to the action and even though they’re not going 200 mph, when you’re that close to them going 100 mph, it seems really fast.  Short tracks are a great challenge to the crew chief (and the driver) because suspension movement is so much more important than aerodynamics.  And, of course, tempers seem to be proportional to the track length of the track:  at Martinsville, they are both really short.

But you have to realize just how much smaller Martinsville is than the California track.  The straights at Martinsville are 800 feet, while the backstretch at Fontana is 2500 feet.  Martinsville is .524 miles, which is 2777 feet.  If you unrolled the Martinsville track, you could just about fit the entire thing on Fontana’s backstretch.  The picture below is my attempt to make a to-scale drawing of the two tracks.  The banking at Fontana looks huge compared to the banking at Martinsville not only because the track is wider at Fontana, but also because the track is simply bigger.  When you look out into the turns, you simply see a lot more asphalt.

Side note:  The featured picture in the post at the top shows me trying to stand up on the 24-degree banking at Texas Motor Speedway, just to give you an idea of how steep 24 degrees actually is.  This was while we were shooting the Science of Speed video series.

So that’s the difference between the tracks at Martinsville and Fontana.  I’m told there is absolutely no comparison between their hot dogs.

Thanks for the question, Michael!  Questions (and suggestions for the Sirius radio “NASCAR Mythbusters” segment) are always welcome.  Click on the ‘contact’ tab above to send me an email.

I’m heading out to Joliet, IL to give my  Science of Speed talk at Joliet Junior College Friday October 26th at 7:00 p.m.  More information on how to get there can be found on my appearances page.  My talk is aimed at the average NASCAR fan and focuses on why it’s a lot harder to drive fast than most of us think.  Most people leave the talk with even more respect for what professional racecar drivers do.  I promise no pop quizzes, so please come on out and meet me!

 

 

May 262012
 

This was the first year that most people noticed a decrease in the number of cautions, but (as I’ve pointed out), 2012 is merely the latest in a six-year trend of decreasing cautions.  The same downward trend is evident in the Nationwide Series.  This year is perhaps notable for it being so extreme.

I’ve plotted the cautions per 100 miles (the best way I’ve found to compare changing race lengths and different tracks) for Cup races so far this year at right.  The plot shows the minimum and maximum values for each track, with the average shown by an open square.  The red square shows the cautions for 2012.  At California, Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Kansas, Talladega and Darlington, the 2012 value is the lowest value in the last six years.

The data clearly shows the trend:  The question, of  course, is why?

Given that it’s happening in both Nationwide and Cup, that sort of eliminates issues like the introduction of new cars (either COT or the new Nationwide car), the Chase Format, etc.  What was left to investigate?  How about the drivers?  A number of commentators has suggested that drivers were just “better” now.  But how do you test this?

I started by deciding that experience and quality could be indicated by number of races run and number of races won, respectively.  I decided to compare 2005 (which had the highest number of cautions) with 2011.

My criteria for including drivers was that the driver had to have run more than 15 races during the season.  That kept the focus on the full-time drivers.  I totaled two quantities for the drivers that made the cut:  the total number of career laps they had run in the Cup Series (including the season in question) and the total number of career races they had won in the Cup Series.

Year 2005 2011
Races run 11109 12180
Races won 485 485

The drivers who spent the most time on track in 2011 had about a thousand (1071 to be precise) more races worth of experience:  with roughly 25 drivers included that’s an average experience level of 40 races, or almost a full season per driver. The number of wins was exactly the same.

I looked into the details as to what had really changed between 2005 and 2011.  We lost a lot of experienced drivers from active competition:  Dale Jarrett, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, Sterling Marlin, Kyle Petty, Michael Waltrip, and Ken Schrader for starters.  Their places were taken by drivers just starting out:  From 2005 to 2011, Kasey Kahne went from 72 races run and 1 win to 288 races run and 12 wins.  Kyle Busch went from 42 races and 2 wins in 2005 to 257 races and 23 wins in 2011.  Jamie McMurray didn’t make the active list in 2005, but in 2011 had 230 races and 6 wins.  Even the folks we think of as veterans, look at Tony Stewart: from 248/24 to 464/44, and Carl Edwards: 49/4 to 265/19.

Even drivers who haven’t won races have run a lot more races and gained a lot more experience:  Dave Blaney (200 races by 2005 vs. 397 races by 2011).

So I started thinking about the average experience of the drivers.  I made histograms of the number of drivers who had run some number of races, as shown at right and below.  They are plotted on the same vertical scale for easy comparison.

In 2005, 10 drivers had under 100 races worth of experience.  In 2011, only 5 drivers had 100 races or less on their resumes.  (One of those five was the 2011 Daytona 500 winner.)  In 2005, 27% of the drivers had fewer than 100 races under their belts, while in 2011, the figure was only 12%.  Yes, we lost a lot of really experienced driver with more than 600 races under their belts, but the younger, newer drivers also gained a lot of experience over those five years.

I’m not sure you learn as much from the races won.  There were 12 drivers with no wins in 2005 and 11 in 2006.  But there was only one driver who had won one race in 2005 and eight who had won one race in 2011.

There were plenty of people making the aggrandized claim that the reason cautions are decreasing is “these are the best race car drivers in the world”.  I’d make a slightly less aggressive conclusion and say that NASCAR has much more experienced drivers now than they had in 2005 and that’s why the number of cautions has decreased.

There are (as always) caveats.  Having watched the Nationwide race at Charlotte and poor Travis Pastrana causing multiple cautions, it would be interesting to go back and look at whether the drivers I didn’t count in this survey had more wrecks than the regular drivers.

 

Apr 202012
 

The plot below shows the cumulative number of cautions per mile since 2007.  I’m using number of cautions per100 miles to 1) make up for races that were not run to completion; 2) compensate for green-white-checkered finishes; 3) compensate for tracks that have shortened races; and 4) compensated for changing order in which tracks are visited.

Cautions per 100 miles can be thought of as follows:  If the cautions per 100 miles is 1.6, then the number of cautions for a 500 mile race would average (1.5*500/100) = 6.

The results are sort of interesting:

Things to notice:

1)  All of the final values for cautions per 100 miles end up between 1.8 and 2.4, even though the values at the start of the year ranged from 1.4 to 3.1.

2)  The data for the first 10 races changes wildly with each race.  The data don’t start to converge toward their final values until at least 15 races into the season.  I suspect that if you plotted a drivers’ standing in the points as a function of number of races, you would see the same behavior.  Why?  As the total number of miles run increases, the number of cautions in a race is increasingly small compared with the total number of  miles run.

3)  Despite the decreasing fluctuations, there are still quite a few noticeable jumps upward.  When I saw them, I immediately thought:  Ah – there’s Bristol.  But closer inspection showed me wrong.  The big troublemakers are Richmond and Martinsville, which together account for the largest number of upward jumps.

4)  There seems to be a significant difference in caution rates from 2008/2009 to 2010/2011.  Anyone want to venture guess as to what is responsible?

 

Apr 182012
 

I honestly cannot help it – scientists are naturally skeptical.  If you make an assertion, I will have to question you on what data you have that supports it.  This is second nature to the people I work with, but I realize it is damned irritating to non-scientists (aka “normal”) people.

So when I started reading everywhere that “cautions were down 35%”, I had to go look into it.  This is a preliminary post – more detailed analysis will follow as soon as I’ve read my students’ final projects and gotten comments back to them.

First, let’s talk statistics.  Reliable statistics require large numbers.  It drives me nuts when people extrapolate from the first few races of the year.  You can’t claim much on the basis of five data points.  Even the top quark required seven (if I remember right – they did get more after they announced they’d found it).

The stock market fluctuates up and down.  Everyone except people who are thinking about retiring ignore the short-term fluctuations and focus on the long-term trends.  What do the data say about cautions in NASCAR?

I picked five tracks to analyze in this first round:  Martinsville, Texas, Talladega, New Hampshire and Atlanta.  The first four represent a range of track types, while the last was chosen to see whether the cautions were “cookie cutter-like”.  I first plotted the number of cautions as a function of year for all the tracks together.  If cautions are decreasing, we should see a general trend downward.  Here’s what I got:

Not much of a clear trend, huh?  If anything, it looks like the overall trend (since 1950) is going up.

Thinking it might be unfair to use really old data, I decided to focus on 1997-2012.  I plotted all five tracks on their own graph for just those years.  I’m sorry for the color – those are the defaults on Origin.  I will change them when I do a full post.

What do you think?  I might buy a downward trend for Texas, but it’s hard to make that argument for the other tracks. Martinsville went from 18 in the last race of 2011 to 7 this year – that’s a 61% drop right there — but if you compare it to the Spring race (and an argument can be made for comparing Spring to Spring and Fall to Fall), that race had only 11 cautions.  That’s a drop of 36.3%.  there is a wide gap between those two figures.

Just for fun, I took the historical data for the three tracks with long records.  Here they are:

As I said, I’ll follow this up with more extensive analysis, but I wanted to get the data out there ASAP.